O desafio para o desenvolvimento econômico não está na produção de commodities per se, a questão chave é se o pais é capaz de caminhar downstream ou upstream na cadeia das commodities para aprender a fazer produtos mais sofisticados. O desenvolvimento econômico e nível de renda per capita dependem fortemente das capacidades produtivas locais e da habilidade de se produzir bens complexos. Países ricos em commodities que tiveram sucesso nessa tarefa: EUA, Noruega, Finlândia, Malásia, Tailândia, Austrália, nova Zelândia e Canadá. (ver slide 31, Daron Acemolgu: https://economics.mit.edu/files/966) abaixo)

Ao contrário do que muitos pensam, o Canada é um caso interessante de evolução industrial e manufatureira conforme mostram os indicadores de complexidade abaixo. Suas empresas manufatureiras atuais mais conhecidas conseguiram avançar e conquistar mercados interessantes: Bombardier e BlackBerry. A primeira segue brigando no mercados de aviação regional e executiva e no mercado de jet-skis (com a marca sea-doo), de snowmobiles e veículos de neve. A segunda teve menos sorte no luta dinâmica e violenta dos smartphones contra Apple, Samsung e Motorola. A divisão de veículos recreacionais da Bombardier, a Bombardier Recreational Vehicles, foi separada e constiuida em uma nova empresa, que explora produtos como sea-doo, ski-doo. Os tratores e maquinários agrícolas da empresa Massey-Fergusson, originalmente 100% canadense, são também um exemplo interessante, particularmente conhecidos no Brasil. O primeiro trator produzido no Brasil tinha essa marca, o Massey Fergusson MF-50. O mapa abaixo mostra que tanto veículos e materiais de transporte quanto maquinaria e materiais eletro-eletronicos ocupam espaço de destque na pauta exportadora canadense. Os indicadores de complexidade colocam o Canada numa posição importante em relação a outros países ricos em recursos naturais, notadamente quando comparado a America Latina e Africa. Mais recentemente o boom de commodities decorrente do avanço da economia chinesa provocou uma perda de complexidade importante no pais como pode se observar no segundo gráfico.

A Austrália também e’ um caso interessante de desenvolvimento industrial na presença de abundancia de recursos naturais. Ao contrario do que muitos imaginam, a indústria australiana já ocupou um espaço importante da economia, tendo atingido 25% do PIB em seu auge nos anos 60. Uma relativa sofisticação produtiva foi atingida e os indicadores de complexidade abaixo mostram que ate os anos 80 o pais tinha ainda  estaque nesse quesito. Nunca chegou a posição de um Canada, por exemplo, mas ainda assim e’ possível dizer que houve industrialização relevante na Austrália. 

estrutura de empregos na Australia:

paper aqui sobre o tema:

http://www.abde.org.br/uploads/docs/MIOLO%20PREMIO%20ABDE%202017_WEB.pdf

Grafico de Daron Acemoglu:

Nova Zelândia: https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/nzl/

Canada: https://atlas.media.mit.edu/pt/profile/country/can/

Australia: https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/aus/

The Industrial Revolution in Australia

nas palavras de Erik Reinert: http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:http://www.othercanon.org/uploads/SUM%2520paper%2520diminishing%2520returns.doc

“We can divide all economic activities in the world in two broad categories: a) Activities where the supply of one factor of production is limited in quantity and/or quality by nature. These are resource-based activities which are all subject to Dimin­ishing Returns. Nations dependent on Diminishing Return activities – and where little alternative employment exists – may find that they are locked into a depend­ence upon these raw materials, that the barriers to exitfrom this dependency are enor­mous. Un­der these circumstances the nation may , in effect, be locked into a situation where the only possible livelihood for a large part of its inhabitants is to carve out a liv­ing destroy­ing the environment (burning rain forests, polluting rivers with chemicals needed for washing gold, etc.) In manufacturing industries their skills lag so far behind those of the advanced countries, and their markets for such good are so small, that they are effec­tively locked out of manufacturing in a free-trade regime. b) Activities where the supply of all factors of production is expandable at the same or lower unit costs (with the exception of temporary bottlenecks). Nations who have a large part of their economy within such activities – including a manufacturing sector – will find that, even though Diminishing Return activities may account for the bulk of their exports, the insustainable pressure on their national resources is of a much less serious nature, and – due to a lack of absolute poverty – much more easily controlled by legislative measures.”

The Australian and Canadian strategies to escape the ‘resource curse’ carry with them many elements for the ‘disequilibrium economists’ who are shown in Chart 1. The ba­sic element in the strategy is the following reasoning, taking the example of Aus­tralia: According to Ricardian trade theory, Australia should have specialised com­pletely in the production of wool, where the nation not only has a comparative advan­tage, but also an absolute cost advantage in the world. Yet, in spite of this clear rec­ommendation, the two main government reports on economic policy in Australia this Century – the Brig­den Report[35]and the Vernon Report[36] – both see the dangers of specialising according to their comparative advantage, which today is the standard solution for all resource-based Third World nations. The Australian argument is very similar to the arguments forwarded by the influential Canadian economist Harold Innes (1894-1952)[37], and in­deed the industrial and trade policies of Australia and Canada have been remarkably similar. Both these countries, however, went com­pletely against the recommendations which the First World today gives to Third World countries in the situation where Aus­tralia and Canada once were.

The Australian (and Canadian) argument, starting in the late 19th Cen­tury, is, in prac­tice, a copy of the strategy previously employed by the United States to get out of its dependence on raw cotton. The Australian and Canadian arguments for embarking on the strategy are slightly different than the US arguments, however, based as they are more on the danger of the ‘inferiority’ of raw material production, than on the ‘superiority’ of manufacturing, the key argument used in the United States. This is the essence of the Australian argument: If our nation specialises completely in one resource-based product, e.g. wool, two things will happen which will for ever prevent us from getting into the club of wealthy nations. First, the price of wool will fall, because we shall be produc­ing so much of it. Second, and more important, having no other alter­native source of mass employment, we shall be taking our wool production into areas of Diminish­ing Returns, to places where productivity will be much lower than in our best ar­eas. There will be no natural checks – no deterrents – to this proc­ess of taking the whole nation into producing massively under Diminish­ing Re­turns. An automatic consequence of this process will be that wages will have to fall as population in­creases. In short: An exclusive dependence on natural re­sources will lead us into a poverty trap.”

As grandes indústrias da Austrália

Construindo complexidade: uma nova maneira de encarar o processo de desenvolvimento econômico

Produção manufatureira no mundo por país:

https://www.indexmundi.com/facts/indicators/NV.IND.MANF.CD/rankings

Ótimo trabalho sobre o tema https://www.researchgate.net/publication/323918171_Estrutura_produtiva_e_crescimento_Uma_analise_comparativa_de_Brasil_Australia_e_Canada

Exportação de Whey Protein: https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/top-10-exporters-of-whey-dairy-products.html

Relatório Brigden (http://press-files.anu.edu.au/downloads/press/p55501/mobile/ch04s02.html)

Relatório Vernon (https://www.smh.com.au/public-service/the-vernon-report-hits-misses-and-menzies-reaction-half-a-century-on-20151003-gk0gvg.html)

Minas e poços de petróleo: Australia, Chile, Arabia Saudita, Kuwait, Noruega, Qatar e Emirados Arabes

ref:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/375558/australia-gdp-distribution-across-economic-sectors/

Composição do emprego na Áustralia:

http://lmip.gov.au/default.aspx?LMIP/EmploymentData_EmploymentbyIndustry